When Words Move Markets: Interpretable Behavioural and Robustness Analysis of LLMs for Financial Sentiment Reasoning via Local Perturbation Explanations.
- S. Verma, K. Aslansefat, J. Chatterjee , A. Marar and A. Ekundayo
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Sentiment analysis plays an integral role in the financial sector towards identifying ongoing and emerging market trends. Whilst LLMs perform efficiently in tasks like sentiment prediction, the token-level and contextual understanding behind their decisions remains under-explored. This thereby limits their adoption in regulated domains. This study aims to decipher the reasoning behind how LLMs judge sentiments by taking predictive stability, token-level evidence and contextual cues into account. We apply Generative Statistical Model-Agnostic Interpretability (GSMILE) technique, to examine how a given sentence influences the model output distributions at the local level. We fine-tuned three open-source models to compare their behaviour in this study – Gemma-3-270M by Google, Mistral-7B-Instructv0.1 and Qwen-2.5-0.5B-Instruct. Our analysis shows that LLM sentiment prediction is shaped by how importance is distributed across tokens and their interactions in a sentence. Moreover, the model predictions are driven more by contextual cues than by lexical sentiment cues. These findings suggest that high efficiency alone is insufficient to enable trust in LLM-based predictions, underscoring the importance of interpretability and transparency when using LLMs in financial analytics.- 2026. Proceedings of International Conference on Applications of Natural Language to Information Systems.