Early Multimodal Prediction of Cross-Lingual Meme Virality on Reddit: A Time-Window Analysis
- S. Dogan, , N. Dethlefs, , D. Chakraborty.
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Predicting the virality of online content remains challenging, especially for culturally complex, fast-evolving memes. This study investigates the feasibility of early prediction of meme virality using a large-scale, cross-lingual dataset from 25 diverse Reddit communities. We propose a robust, data-driven method to define virality based on a hybrid engagement score, learning a percentile-based threshold from a chronologically held-out training set to prevent data leakage. We evaluated a suite of models, including Logistic Regression, XGBoost, and a Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), with a comprehensive, multimodal feature set across increasing time windows (30-420 min). Crucially, useful signals emerge quickly: our best-performing model, XGBoost, achieves a PR-AUC > 0.52 in just 30 minutes. Our analysis reveals a clear "evidentiary transition," in which the importance of the feature dynamically shifts from the static context to the temporal dynamics as a meme gains traction. This work establishes a robust, interpretable, and practical benchmark for early virality prediction in scenarios where full diffusion cascade data is unavailable, contributing a novel cross-lingual dataset and a methodologically sound definition of virality. To our knowledge, this study is the first to combine time series data with static content and network features to predict early meme virality.- arXiv:2510.05761